The baseline risk for violent reoffending for OxRec (based on a Swedish sample) was 11% within 12 months and 18% within 24 months.
* If one or more of these variables are set to ‘unknown’, a range of risk levels will be displayed.
† Deciles are transformed into z-scores to calculate risk of offending, as per the deprivation score used in the OxRec model.
OxRec should only be used for individuals released from prison.
The content of the OxRisk website (including the risk calculators) is accurate according to the opinions of the authors of the calculators. The information and directions may or may not apply to specific individuals considered for assessment. The calculators provide a ‘best guess’ of likely outcomes based on current knowledge, but cannot provide an accurate prediction for each individual. Determination of appropriate application and scoring of the OxRisk calculators to specific cases and in specific jurisdictions requires the judgement of a clinician or criminal justice professional. OxRisk calculators are intended to be an adjunct to clinical decision-making.
Materials on this website are protected by copyright law. Access to the information on this website should be for the sole purpose of personal, educational and research use only. Where appropriate a single print out of a reasonable proportion of these materials may be made for personal education, research and private study. Materials should not be further copied, photocopied or reproduced, or distributed in electronic form. Any unauthorised use or distribution for commercial purposes is expressly forbidden.
Publications
Development and validation
- Fazel S, Chang Z, Fanshawe TR, Långström N, Lichtenstein P, Larsson H, Mallett S. Prediction of violent reoffending on release from prison: derivation and external validation of a scalable tool (OxRec).
Lancet Psychiatry (2016).
Further external validation
- Savinena S et al. Prediction of reoffending in people released from prison in Norway: external validation of the OxRec risk assessment tool.
Psychology, Crime & Law (2025). - Beaudry G et al. Prediction of violent reoffending in people released from prison in England: External validation study of a risk assessment tool (OxRec).
Journal of Criminal Justice (2023). - Beaudry G et al. Predicting violent reoffending in individuals released from prison in a lower-middle-income country: A validation of OxRec in Tajikistan.
Frontiers in Psychiatry (2022). - Fazel S et al. Prediction of violent reoffending in prisoners and individuals on probation: a Dutch validation study (OxRec).
Scientific Reports (2019).
Other research
- Fazel S et al. Towards a more evidence-based risk assessment for people in the criminal justice system: the case of OxRec in the Netherlands.
The European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research (2022). - Fazel S et al. The predictive performance of criminal risk assessment tools used at sentencing: Systematic review of validation studies.
Journal of Criminal Justice (2022).
Statement on OxRec (in response to Dutch Inspectie Justitie en Veiligheid)