Our publications
Our models are open access and free to use for research purposes. We highly recommend referring to the user guide and tutorial before exploring them.
Development and validation
- Fazel S, Wolf A, Larsson H, Lichtenstein P, Mallett S, Fanshawe TR. Identification of low risk of violent crime in severe mental illness with a clinical prediction tool (Oxford Mental Illness and Violence tool [OxMIV]): a derivation and validation study.
Lancet Psychiatry (2017).
Further external validation
- Whiting D et al. Assessing violence risk in first-episode psychosis: external validation, updating and net benefit of a prediction tool (OxMIV).
BMJ Mental Health (2023). - Lamsma J et al. Validation and recalibration of OxMIV in predicting violent behaviour in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders.
Scientific Reports (2022).
Feasibility and implementation
- Whiting et al. Use of a violence risk prediction tool (Oxford Mental Illness and Violence) in early intervention in psychosis services: mixed methods study of acceptability, feasibility and clinical role.The British Journal of Psychiatry (2025).
- Whiting et al. Approaches and challenges to assessing risk of violence in first episode psychosis: A qualitative interview study of clinicians, patients and carers.
Early Intervention in Psychiatry (2024). - Beaudry G et al. Evaluating the risk of suicide and violence in severe mental illness: A feasibility study of two risk assessment tools (OxMIS and OxMIV) in general psychiatric settings.
Frontiers in Psychiatry (2022).
Whiting D, Mallett S, Lennox B, Fazel S
Assessing violence risk in first-episode psychosis: external validation, updating and net benefit of a prediction tool (OxMIV)
BMJ Ment Health (2023)- doi: 10.1136/bmjment-2022-300634.
Lansma J, Yu R, Fazel S, Genetic Risk and Outcome of Psychosis (GROUP) investigators
Validation and recalibration of OxMIV in predicting violent behaviour in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders
Scientific Reports (2022)- doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-04266-9
Negatsch N, Voulgaris A, Seidel P, Roehle R, Opitz-Welke A
Identifying violent behaviour using the Oxford Mental Illness and Violence Tool in a psychiatric ward of a German prison hospital
Frontiers in Psychiatry (2019) – doi: 10.3389/fpsyt.2019.0026480/08039488.2022.2084158.
Development and validation
- Wolf A, Fanshawe TR, Sariaslan A, Cornish R, Larsson H, Fazel S. Prediction of violent crime on discharge from secure psychiatric hospitals: a clinical prediction rule (FoVOx).
European Psychiatry (2018).
Feasibility and implementation
- Forsman J et al. Integrating static and modifiable risk factors in violence risk assessment for forensic psychiatric patients: a feasibility study of FoVOx.
Nordic Journal of Psychiatry (2022). - Zhong S et al. Assessment of violence risk in 440 psychiatric patients in China: examining the feasibility and acceptability of a novel and scalable approach (FoVOx).
BMC Psychiatry (2021). - Cornish R et al. A clinical feasibility study of the forensic psychiatry and violence Oxford (FoVOx) tool.
Frontiers in Psychiatry (2019).
Other research
- MG Ogonah et al. Violence risk assessment instruments in forensic psychiatric populations: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
Lancet Psychiatry (2023).
Development and validation
- Fazel S, Chang Z, Fanshawe TR, Långström N, Lichtenstein P, Larsson H, Mallett S. Prediction of violent reoffending on release from prison: derivation and external validation of a scalable tool (OxRec).
Lancet Psychiatry (2016).
Further external validation
- Savinena S et al. Prediction of reoffending in people released from prison in Norway: external validation of the OxRec risk assessment tool.Psychology, Crime & Law (2025).
- Beaudry G et al. Prediction of violent reoffending in people released from prison in England: External validation study of a risk assessment tool (OxRec).
Journal of Criminal Justice (2023). - Beaudry G et al. Predicting violent reoffending in individuals released from prison in a lower-middle-income country: A validation of OxRec in Tajikistan.
Frontiers in Psychiatry (2022). - Fazel S et al. Prediction of violent reoffending in prisoners and individuals on probation: a Dutch validation study (OxRec).
Scientific Reports (2019).
Other research
- Fazel S et al. Towards a more evidence-based risk assessment for people in the criminal justice system: the case of OxRec in the Netherlands.
The European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research (2022). - Fazel S et al. The predictive performance of criminal risk assessment tools used at sentencing: Systematic review of validation studies.
Journal of Criminal Justice (2022).
Development and validation
Yu R, Molero Y, Långström N, Fanshawe TR, Yukhnenko D, Lichtenstein P, Larsson H, Fazel S. Prediction of reoffending risk in men convicted of sexual offences: development and validation of novel and scalable risk assessment tools (OxRIS). Journal of Criminal Justice (2022).
Development and validation
- Fazel S, Wolf A, Larsson H, Mallett S, Fanshawe TR. The prediction of suicide in severe mental illness: development and validation of a clinical prediction rule (OxMIS).
Translational Psychiatry (2019).
Feasibility and implementation
- Senior M et al. Identifying Predictors of Suicide in Severe Mental Illness: A Feasibility Study of a Clinical Prediction Rule (Oxford Mental Illness and Suicide Tool or OxMIS).
Frontiers in Psychiatry (2020).
Other research
- Seyedsalehi A et al. Suicide risk assessment tools and prediction models: new evidence, methodological innovations, outdated criticisms.
BMJ Ment Health (2024). - Sariaslan A et al. Predicting suicide risk in 137,112 people with severe mental illness in Finland: external validation of the Oxford Mental Illness and Suicide tool (OxMIS).
Translational Psychiatry (2023). - Botchway S et al. Cost-effectiveness of implementing a suicide prediction tool (OxMIS) in severe mental illness: Economic modeling study.
European Psychiatry (2022). - Fazel S et al. Suicide.
The New England Journal of Medicine (2020). - Whiting D et al. How accurate are suicide risk prediction models? Asking the right questions for clinical practice.
Evidence Based Mental Health (2019). - Senior M, Burghart M, Yu R, Kormilitzin A, Liu Q, Vici N, Nevado-Holgado A, Pandit S, Zlodre J, Fazel S. Identifying predictors of suicide in severe mental illness: A feasibility study of a clinical prediction rule (Oxford Mental Illness and Suicide Tool or OxMIS). Frontiers Psychiatry (2020) – doi: 10.3389/fpsyt.2020.00268
- Ryland H, Fazel S. A clinician’s guide to probabilistic suicide risk prediction tools: cautions and pitfalls: commentary, Ryland & Fazel. The British Journal of Psychiatry. Published online 2026:1-2. doi: 10.1192/bjp.2026.10564
- Oliver, D., Beaudry, G. M., Coutts, F., & Fazel, S. (2026). Emerging opportunities and challenges for clinical prediction models in psychiatry: commentary, Oliver et al. The British Journal of Psychiatry, 1–3. doi: 10.1192/bjp.2026.10565
- Webb, J., & Fazel, S. (2026). A clinician’s guide to probabilistic suicide risk prediction tools. The British Journal of Psychiatry, 1–2. doi: 10.1192/bjp.2026.10574
- Hart, J., Lignou, S. & Fazel, S. Health justice, resource allocation and age in suicide risk assessment. Nat. Mental Health (2026). doi: 10.1038/s44220-026-00635-3
Development and validation
- Fazel S, Vazquez-Montes MD, Molero Y, Runeson B, D’Onofrio BM, Larsson H, Lichtenstein P, Walker J, Sharpe M, Fanshawe TR. Risk of death by suicide following self-harm presentations to healthcare: development and validation of a multivariable clinical prediction rule (OxSATS).
BMJ Mental Health (2023).
Other research
- Seyedsalehi A et al. Suicide risk assessment tools and prediction models: new evidence, methodological innovations, outdated criticisms.
BMJ Ment Health (2024). - Fazel S et al. Suicide.
The New England Journal of Medicine (2020). - Whiting D et al. How accurate are suicide risk prediction models? Asking the right questions for clinical practice.
Evidence Based Mental Health (2019).
Development and validation
Fazel S, Vazquez-Montes MD, Lagerberg T, Molero Y, Walker J, Sharpe M, Larsson H, Runeson B, Lichtenstein P, Fanshawe TR. Risk of repeat self-harm among individuals presenting to healthcare services: development and validation of a clinical risk assessment model (OxSET).
BMJ Mental Health (2024).
Development and validation
- Fazel S, Heathcote L, Farouki L, Senior J, Perry A, Fanshawe TR, Shaw J. Bridging assessment and treatment for repeat suicidality in prisons: development and validation of a risk model.
BMJ Mental Health (2025).
Other
- Fazel S, Gunnarsson L, Ryland H., 2025. Justice Trends Magazine. Reducing self-harm to improve rehabilitation outcomes.
FoVOx and OxMIV
Krebs J, Negatsch V, Berg C, Aigner A, Opitz-Welke A, Seidel P, Konrad N, Voulgaris A
Applicability of two violence risk assessment tools in a psychiatric prison hospital population
Behavioral Sciences & the Law (2020) – doi: 10.1002/bsl.2474
FoVOx and OxMIS
de Girolamo G, Carrà G, Fangerau H, Ferrari C, Gosek P, Heitzman J, Salize H, Walker M, Wancata J, Picchioni, M. European violence risk and mental disorders (EU-VIORMED): a multi-centre prospective cohort study protocol. BMC Psychiatry (2019) – doi: 10.1186/s12888-019-2379-x
OxMIS and OxMIV
Beaudry G, Canal-Rivero Manuel, Ou J, Matharu J, Fazel S, Yu R. Evaluating the risk of suicide and violence in severe mental illness: a feasibility study of two risk assessment tools (OxMIS and OxMIV) in general psychiatric settings. Frontiers in Psychiatry (2022) – doi: 10.3389/fpsyt.2022.871213
The content of the OxRisk website (including the risk calculators) is accurate according to the opinions of the authors of the calculators. The information and directions may or may not apply to specific individuals considered for assessment. The calculators provide a ‘best guess’ of likely outcomes based on current knowledge, but cannot provide an accurate prediction for each individual. Determination of appropriate application and scoring of the OxRisk calculators to specific cases and in specific jurisdictions requires the judgement of a clinician or criminal justice professional. OxRisk calculators are intended to be an adjunct to clinical decision-making.
Materials on this website are protected by copyright law. Access to the information on this website should be for the sole purpose of personal, educational and research use only. Where appropriate a single print out of a reasonable proportion of these materials may be made for personal education, research and private study. Materials should not be further copied, photocopied or reproduced, or distributed in electronic form. Any unauthorised use or distribution for commercial purposes is expressly forbidden.