Crime and reoffence prediction models
Our models are open access and free to use for research purposes. We highly recommend referring to the user guide and tutorial before exploring them.
Explore our recidivism prediction models:
Expand list elements to see descriptions and follow links.
Oxford Recidivism tool (OxRec) – prediction of violent reoffending in released prisoners. This model is only suitable for prisoners, but there was validation on Dutch probationers. In some countries it is impossible to include the neighbourhood deprivation index, so the newest validated model (OxRec2) does not include this variable.
Also available in other languages:
Oxford Recidivism Monitoring tool (OxMORE) – risk monitoring tool for people given community sentences (e.g., probation).
Forensic psychiatry and Violence Oxford tool – prediction of violent reoffending in patients of secure and forensic psychiatric hospitals.
Also available in other languages:
Forensic psychiatry and Violence Oxford tool – prediction of violent reoffending in patients of secure and forensic psychiatric hospitals.
Also available in other languages:
Forensic psychiatry and Violence Oxford tool (P) – prediction of violent reoffending in patients of secure and forensic psychiatric hospitals with schizophrenia spectrum disorders.
Also available in other languages:
Oxford Risk of Recidivism in Sexual Offenders (OXRIS) – prediction of reoffending in men convicted of sexual offences.
Also available in other languages:
Oxford tool for Domestic Violence (OxDoV) – prediction of reoffending in people who have previous domestic violence arrest. Below you will find prediction tools for any reoffence, violent reoffence, and domestic violence reoffence.
The content of the OxRisk website (including the risk calculators) is accurate according to the opinions of the authors of the calculators. The information and directions may or may not apply to specific individuals considered for assessment. The calculators provide a ‘best guess’ of likely outcomes based on current knowledge, but cannot provide an accurate prediction for each individual. Determination of appropriate application and scoring of the OxRisk calculators to specific cases and in specific jurisdictions requires the judgement of a clinician or criminal justice professional. OxRisk calculators are intended to be an adjunct to clinical decision-making.
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